Della Renaningtyas

Program Studi Tadris Matematika, Fakultas Tarbiyah dan Ilmu Keguruan, Universitas Islam Negeri Syekh Wasil, Indonesia

Nalsa Cintya Resti

Program Studi Tadris Matematika, Fakultas Tarbiyah dan Ilmu Keguruan, Universitas Islam Negeri Syekh Wasil, Indonesia

Nur Fadilatul Ilmiyah

Program Studi Tadris Matematika, Fakultas Tarbiyah dan Ilmu Keguruan, Universitas Islam Negeri Syekh Wasil, Indonesia

DOI: https://doi.org/10.19184/j-agt.v18i2.53714

ABSTRACT 

This study highlights the importance of data-based financial planning strategies in dealing with fluctuations in the net profit of PT Kino Indonesia Tbk, with forecasting as the main tool for understanding the impact of operating expenses on net profit performance over time. The objective of this study is to forecast the net profit of PT Kino Indonesia Tbk based on operational expenses using the ARIMAX (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables) method, to assist the company in developing more targeted and data-driven medium-term financial strategies. This study employs a quantitative approach with a descriptive-predictive research design. The data used are secondary data in the form of quarterly financial reports of PT Kino Indonesia Tbk for the period 2018 to 2023. The variables analyzed consist of net profit as the dependent variable and operating expenses as the exogenous variable. The selection of the ARIMAX model was carried out through the stages of data identification, stationarity testing, parameter estimation, and diagnostic testing. The best model was determined based on the AIC,

SBC, and Ljung-Box test values. Model accuracy was measured using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. The analysis results indicate that the ARIMAX(1,0,0) model is the best model for forecasting net profit based on operating expenses. The net profit forecast for the period 2024 to 2028 shows an upward trend despite fluctuations between quarters. The MAPE value of 7,64218738% indicates a very high level of accuracy and the resulting forecast will be closer to reality, making the company’s decisions more reliable.

Keywords: Forecasting; Net Income; Operating Expenses; ARIMAX; PT Kino Indonesia Tbk.

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